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“以舊換新”靴子落地,車市或迎小陽春

事件:4月26日,商務部、財政部等七部門聯合印發《汽車以舊換新補貼實施細則》,明確補貼範圍、標準、申領流程和監督管理要求。自《細則》印發之日至2024年12月31日期間,報廢國三及以下排放標準燃油乘用車或2018年4月30日前註冊登記的新能源乘用車,並購買符合節能要求乘用車新車的個人消費者,可享受一次性定額補貼。其中,對報廢上述兩類舊乘用車並購買符合條件的新能源乘用車的,補貼1萬元;對報廢國三及以下排放標準燃油乘用車並購買2.0升及以下排量燃油乘用車的,補貼7000元。

點評:繼3月初中央提出推動大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新的指導方案,於二季度的首月,在北京車展期間,各個中央職能部門如期推出了汽車以舊換新的細則,政策靴子終落地。

此次細則主要針對乘用車,明確了補貼範圍,即有新能源乘用車又包含傳統燃油車,補貼範圍較大。根據公開資料,符合補貼標準的傳統燃油車有1400多萬輛,假設即使其中20%的消費者換車,單車價格以15萬計算,將拉動4千億元的汽車消費。

此外,補貼資金由中央財政和地方財政總體按6:4 比例共擔,並分地區確定具體分擔比例。東部/中部/西部省份各按5:5/6:4/7:3的比例分擔。考慮到,今年3月上海廣州等一線城市已出臺一輪以舊換新補貼政策,細則出臺之後,預計將有更多城市跟進或加大力度。

另外,此輪政策是一套組合拳,例如:央行等部門同期印發了有關汽車消費信貸的優惠金融貸款政策,購買汽車可以實現0首付。同時將繼續發展二手車市場,實施二手車交易反向開票政策;大力完善充換電,停車,智慧交通等基礎設施建設,打消消費者購車的後顧之憂。

我們認為,在此輪促進汽車消費強刺激政策加持下,疊加北京車展的新車效應,消費者將逐步打消持幣觀望心態,5月起國內乘用車將一掃4月銷量低迷態勢,迎來一個“小陽春”

個股上,我們仍然建議關注積極推進車型高端化的新能源車企,比如比亞迪(1211.HK), 蔚來(9866.HK),賽力斯(601127.CH),吉利汽車(175.HK),和小米產業鏈。

撰稿: 章晶 研究分析員
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+86 21 51699400-103

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zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
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