Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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補回上升裂口 走勢更為健康

Monday, February 2, 2026 Views515

港股上周呈現高位震盪的走勢,恆指上周四一度升穿28000點,創出28056點的逾四年半高。周五卻大幅回吐近600點,收報27387點,但按周仍升638點或2.4%,國指按周上升1.7%,科指卻下跌1.4%。1月收官,三大指數都錄得上升,恆指累升6.8%,國指累升4.5%,科指累升3.7%。滬深股市上周亦呈現高位震盪格局,上證指數按周下跌0.5%,深成指下跌1.6%,創板指數微跌3點。儘管上週出現調整,但整個1月滬指累計上漲約 3.8%,實現了「開門紅」行情。 

 

中國國家統計局上周末公布了1月採購經理指數(PMI),數據顯示製造業與非製造業活動均意外陷入收縮,部分受季節性因素(農曆新年假期前的正常波動)以及內外需求轉弱影響。1月製造業PMI降至 49.3(前值:50.1),低於市場預期的 50。其中,生產指數為50.6,雖保持擴張但增速放緩。新訂單指數為49.2,顯示需求端收縮。新出口訂單為47.8,反映海外需求疲軟。非製造業PMI降至 49.4(前值:50.2)。其中,建築業指數:大幅下滑至 48.8。服務業指數為49.5。綜合PMI產出指數降至49.8(前值:50.7),表明中國企業生產經營活動總體有所放緩。值得注意的是,高技術製造業 PMI 為 52.0,依然保持較快增長,顯示產業結構持續優化。

 

美股上周大幅波動,首先是微軟雲端服務收入遜預期,股價於上周四下挫10%,創下自2020年3月以來最大單日跌幅,觸發科技股遭拋售。然後,美國總統特朗普宣布任命聯儲局前理事沃什為聯儲局主席,其立場較鷹派,為聯儲局未來減息帶來不確定性,加大股市的沽壓。道指上周五報48,892點,按周下跌0.2%。標普500指數按周仍升0.3%,納指則跌0.2%。以全月計,標普500指數及道指分別累升1.4%及1.7%,納指則漲0.9%。

 

經濟數據方面,經濟諮詢委員會公布1月美國消費者信心指數由94.2大跌至84.5,低預期的91,創逾11年低。11月工廠訂單按月升2.7%,優於預期的1.6%,10月為跌1.3%。上周首領失業救濟人數由21萬回落至20.9萬人,多於預期的20.5萬。12月PPI按月升0.5%,高於預期的0.2%,核心PPI按月升0.7%,同樣高於預期的0.2%。按年比較,12月PPI升3%,高於預期的2.8%,核心PPI升3.3%,高於預期的2.9%。本周市場將繼續消化沃什的提名影響,並關注參議院的確認程序。公司財報方面,投資者將密切關注亞馬遜 (Amazon) 及聯合包裹 (UPS) 等企業的裁員計劃與業績指引。經濟數據方面,將重點關注 1 月非農就業報告,以評估勞動力市場的穩定性。 

 

說回港股,恆指上周五下跌可視為連升七個交易日後的正常回吐,以及升破長方形頂部27381點後的後抽。恆指上周三出現了一個濶70點的上升裂口,介於27188點和27258點之間,若補回這個上升裂口,走勢更為健康。所以,只要不跌破27000點,仍屬正常回吐。

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