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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
經理

現任職輝立經理,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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中國農業銀行股份有限公司 - H股 (1288)

Thursday, July 28, 2022 Views6303

# 農業銀行 (1288HK) 收益具防禦性 + 高股息率, 中長線投資價值

 

  • 預期中資銀行的淨利潤增長可隨COVID-19疫情壓力逐步緩解,能在本年第三季度見底。

  • 綜觀一眾內銀股, 中國農業銀行(1288HK) 目前股息率逾9% 極具吸引力。

  • 另外, 農行擁有強大的融資成本優勢,審慎的營運模式及充足的撥備水平,因此即使面對中國大陸消費和投資者信心減弱,應該能轉化為相對較低的盈利波動和穩定的股息前景。

  • 而從宏觀國策方面分析, 中國大陸為了緩衝失業率增加的風險和物流受阻帶來的負面影響,預計內地政府將會透過銀行向指定產業加大信貸額度以支撐經濟。這些措施將有利於包括農行在內的銀行群,特別是那些擁有合適客戶群,以及服務政府指定產業的銀行則更具優勢。

  • 鑑於農業銀行目前的股息收益率高處於9%以上,市帳率亦只是0.36水平, 以目前的估值水平對長期投資者來說是有吸引力的分階段吸納點。

  • 展望下半年度的宏觀經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰,但預計大型銀行撥備壓力可控。而銀行的信貸質量將有明顯改善。

  • 截至去年底,農行的不良貸款率為1.43%,按年跌0.14%。撥備覆蓋率為299.73%,較去年度上升33.53個百分點;資本充足率17.13%,按年升54個基點。

 

# 投資策略

  • 看圖睇勢, 從月線圖來看, 農行自從2020年10月開始, 股價正在上升通道內運行, 目前該上升通道大約為HK$2.60 至HK$3.25左右. 移動平均線的SMA(10), SMA(20) 及SMA(50) 分別為HK$2.6, HK$2.54及HK$2.55, 顯示股價於HK$2.5至HK$2.6附近有一定支持力.

  • 從周線圖來看, 農行股價正處於待變三角型中, 7月期間兩周曾試低位HK$2.5, 顯示HK$2.5水平有不俗的支持力. 若股價能夠突破三角型頂部, 可先上望今年2月高位的HK$2.91.

  • 從日線圖來看, 近月農行股價已多次下試SMA(250) 水平並失而復得, 目前SMA(250) = HK$2.56. 而高位則仍被下降軌所阻礙, 目前該下降軌的阻力位大約為HK$2.71附近.

  • 綜合上述技術分析結果, 我們可以HK$2.5及HK$2.55作分段吸納買入點, 上望第一目標價 = HK$2.71, 第二目標價 = HK$2.91, 及較長線的第三目標價 = HK$3.25. 投資者可於上述水平作分段吸納, 並靈活伺機於各目標價位作出沽出獲利操作.

  • 止蝕位定於2021年9月低位的HK$2.3水平.

 

本人馮兆山為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益.

I, Michael Fung, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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