Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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有望挑戰100天線

Monday, February 19, 2024 Views1750

筆者上一篇評論指出,只要恆指能守住15400,仍可視為由1月22日低位14794回升超過1400點後的回調整固.上周恆指曾跌近15400,周三最低見到15456,之後穩步回升,周五最高見到16394,收報16340,相對前周上升了593點,升幅3.8%,是連續第二周上升.國指和科指也連升兩周,周升幅分別為4.7%和6.9%.在缺乏北水情況下,港股上周成交相對薄弱,周三和周四成交只得500億元左右,但周五成交回升至超過700億元.經濟數據方面,中國金融機構信貸投放實現「開門紅」,1月份銀行新增人民幣貸款和社會融資規模雙雙創出歷史新高,分別高達4.92萬億元和及6.5萬億元,雙雙超出市場預期及去年同期水平,按月狂飆3.2倍及2.3倍.此外,M2-M1剪刀差為2.8%,較上月8.4%大幅收窄.

美國上周公布的通脹數據顯示,1月份消費物價指數(CPI)按年上升3.1%,略高於預期的2.9%升幅;按月則上升0.3%,亦高於預期的0.2%升幅.1月份生產物價指數(PPI)按年上升0.9%,遠高於預期的0.6%;按月升0.3%,亦高於預期的0.1%.CPI和PPI雙雙超出市場預期,令減息預期降溫,刺激國債收益率上市,而股市則呈現震盪.美國兩年期和十年期國債收益率分別升破4.7%和4.3%.股市方面,道指,標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌0.1%,0.4%和1.3%,結束了連續五周的升勢.不過,美國1月份零售銷售按月下降0.8%,遠遜於市場預期的0.2%降幅,重燃市場對聯儲局6月的減息預期.

說回港股,過去兩周恆指大致守住15400,上周五重越16000點,並收於50天移動平均線之上.雖然上周五高位16394仍未突破前周三(2月7日)高位16408,但上周五的收市指數已創出自1月22日低位14794回升以來的新高.後市若能守穩50天線(16150),將有望挑戰100天線.該線現時處於16830附近,每天以約15點的速度下降.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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