Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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完成整固挑戰22524

Monday, July 4, 2022 Views2828

上周評論指出,恆指100天線已下降至21720附近,要升越和企穩100天線之上將變得較為容易.結果恆指在上周一成功升越100天線,周二最高見到22449,逼近今年4月高位22524.周四收報21860,相對前周上升了141點,升幅0.6%.國指在上周二最高見到7918,是自今年3月3日以來的最高位,周四收報7667,按周上升0.5%.科指在上周二最高見到5138,是自今年3月2日以來的最高位,周四收報4870,按周上升0.5%.

A股三大指數上周升幅都超過1%,上證綜指按周上升1.1%,滬深300和深證成指周升幅分別達到1.4%和1.6%.上周公布的經濟數據顯示,國內疫情防控形勢總體逐漸向好,企業復工復產,1-5月份全國規模以上工業企業營業收入同比增9.1%,實現利潤總額增長1%.另外,6月份製造業採購經理指數為50.2,較5月份上升0.6個百分點,重回臨界點以上,顯示製造業恢復性擴張.6月份非製造業商務活動指數為54.7,較4月份上升6.9個百分點,亦重返擴張區間.

美股上周大幅反彈,道指和標準普爾500指數按周分別上升5.4%和6.5%,納指周升幅更達到7.5%.上周公布的美國經濟數據大都差於預期,如第一季GDP萎縮1.6%,是2020年第二季以來首見負增長,第二季的經濟表現亦不容樂觀.另外,5月份零售銷售和新屋動工和營造許可數據均見下滑,6月份消費者信心更降至16個月低點.不過,市場認為經濟衰退風險上升,可能令聯儲局不會太激進地加息,美國十年期國債收益率大幅回落至2.8%水平,反而有利股市.

說回港股,恆指升越6月初高位22143,形成一浪高於一浪的走勢.周三和周四回落可以視為整固及升穿100天線的後抽,同時更補回周一的上升裂口,令走勢更為健康.只要守住100天線(21650),完成整固後,料可挑戰4月4日高位22524.

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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