Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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形成四線向下散開的淡勢

Monday, May 17, 2021 Views2586
美國通脹數據高於預期,引發市場憂慮通脹升溫,為環球股市帶來沽壓.上周港股走勢終於呈現突破,恆指曾下破28000,上周四最低見到27719,是自3月25日以來最低位.周五收報28028,相對前周下跌了583點,跌幅超過2%,是連續第三周下跌.國指上周五收報10405,按周下跌2.7%,也是連續第三周下跌.科指在上周五最低見到7433,是自去年10月23日以來最低位,周五收報7565,周跌幅達4.9%,也是連續第三周下跌.
 
A股上周卻止跌回升,三大指數周升幅都達到2%或以上.4月份新增貸款開始縮量,社會融資規模亦繼續回落,反映廣義流動性的M2同比增速降至8.1%,創2019年8月以來新低,但市場流動性還合理充裕,市場利率亦保持平穩.中國人民銀行發布2021年第一季度中國貨幣政策執行報告,其中發布"如何看待近期國內外物價走勢"專欄.人行指出年內工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)將階段性上行,但不存在長期通脹的基礎.
 
美國4月份居民消費物價指數(CPI)同比增長4.2%,遠高於市場預期的3.6%,創2008年9月以來新高,核心CPI同比增長3%,創1996年1月以來新高.市場憂慮聯儲局可能縮減量寬甚或提早加息,令美股三大指數在上周三全線下挫.可幸聯儲局明確表示尚未考慮調整貨幣政策,令美股在上周四和周五止跌回升,但全周仍呈現下跌,道指和標準普爾500指數按周分別下跌1.1%和1.4%,納指周跌幅更達到2.3%.
 

說回港股,現時不單止恆指確認失守100天線,10天和20天移動也已先後跌穿100天線,出現死亡交叉,而50天線亦行將下破100天線,形成四線向下散開的淡勢,恆指料將維持下行態勢,考驗3月低位27505的支持.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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