Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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延續自去年3月觸底後一浪高一浪走勢

Monday, January 4, 2021 Views2169
期待已久的終極黃金交叉(100天線升越250天線)在上周四半日市終於出現,恆指當日最高見到27341,突破了2020年11月高位27040,為自去年2月21日以來最高位,收報27231,相對前周上升了760點,升幅2.9%,結束了連續四周的跌勢.全年埋單計數,恆指跌幅收窄至3.4%.國指上周四最高見到10766,收報10738,周升幅亦為2.9%,按年則下跌3.9%.
 
A股在2020年最後一個交易日亦顯著上揚,三大指數齊齊創出年內新高.上證成指收報3473,按周上升2.3%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別上升3.4%和3.2%.全年計數,上證綜指漲13.9%,深證成拍漲38.7%,創業板指數漲65%,連續兩年居全球主要指數漲幅之首.國家統計局於上周四公布了最新採購經理指數據,其中,12月份製造業採購經理指數為51.9,雖比11月份回落0.2個百分點,但仍連續10個月位於50臨界點以上,顯示製造業繼續穩步復甦.12月份非製造業商務活動指數為55.7,雖低於11月份0.7個百分點,但仍保持於55以上的較高景氣區間,反映非製造業延續穩步復甦勢頭.
 
美股道指和標準普爾500指數在2020年最後一個交易日亦齊齊創出歷史新高.全年埋單計數,道指,標普500指數和納指分別上升了7.2%,16.3%和44%,納指的升幅更是自2009年以來的最大年度升幅.
 
說回港股,個人一直認為恆指由11月尾27040高位回落是一次正常調整,並且相信恆指100天線將升越250天線,形成終極黃金交叉,顯示中期升勢仍將持續.除了呈現終極黃金交叉外,恆指亦補回去年2月24日的一個下跌裂口,該下跌裂口闊160點,介於27265和27105之間.技術上,恆指延續於去年3月19日21139觸底後一浪高於一浪的走勢,下一目標可挑戰27485,然後上看28055.
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
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