Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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暫宜視為技術性反彈

Monday, February 10, 2020 Views3027

A股假後復市大幅低開,帶動港股下行,恆指在上周一見到26146的全周最低位,之後呈現急速反彈,恆指在上周四見到27608的全周最高位,周五收報27494,相比前周上升了1091點,升幅4.1%,結束了連續兩周的跌勢.國指上周五收報10705,按周上升4.5%,亦結束了連續兩周的跌勢.

A股在上周一鼠年第一個交易日大幅下挫,三大指數跌幅都超過7%.不過,中國人民銀行當日通過開展9000億元的7天期逆回購操作和3000億元的14天期逆回購操作,向市場投放1.2萬億元流動性,對沖到期的1.05萬億元資金,實現淨投放1500億元.同時,7天期和14天期逆回購中標利率皆較前次下調了10個基點.其後,有報道指吉利德科學在研抗病毒藥物瑞德西韋(Remdesivir)將用於治療新型冠狀病毒臨床試驗,加上中國國務院稅則委員會公布調整原產於美國約750億美元進口商品加徵關稅,都被視為利好消息,帶動A股持續反彈,上證綜指上周五收報2874,但相對春節假期前最後一個交易日收盤仍下跌了3.4%;滬深300和深證成指上周五分別收報3898和10609,分別較節前下跌2.6%和0.7%.

中國調整美國進口商品加徵關稅的消息,加上美國經濟數據表現強勁,帶動美股三大指數再創歷史新高.經濟數據方面,美國1月非農職位增加22.5萬份,遠多於市場預期的16.5萬份。另一方面,美國第四季生產力增速加快至1.4%.由於經濟表現穩健,達拉斯聯儲行長卡普蘭預期,今年美國經濟增長約2.3%.美股從上周一至周四連升四日,周五止升回跌,但全周計數,道指、納指和標準普爾500指數仍分別上升了3%、3.2%和4%。

說回港股,對於恆指由26146低位回升,暫宜視為技術性反彈。恆指從1月20日高位29175下跌至26146,共下跌了3029點,如反彈跌幅的一半,將回升見27660;若反彈升幅的0.618比率,將回升見28018.除非升越28018,才確認為新的升勢。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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