Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指下探26000

Monday, February 3, 2020 Views2851
新年伊始,首先恭祝大家萬事如意,身體健康.內地武漢肺炎確診人數持續增加,截至上周六,確診個案數已突破1萬宗.由於憂慮疫情擴散,拖累全球經濟增長,為環球股市帶來衝擊.港股連跌兩周,恆指在上周五最低見到26295,為去年12月5日以來最低水平,收報26313,相對前周下跌了1637點,跌幅達5.9%.159067張.國指更創出三個半月新低,上周五最低見到10230,收報10241,周跌幅達6.7%,也是連續第二周下跌.
 
美國於1月31日宣布將武漢肺炎列為"公共衛生緊急事件",並宣布將從2月2日起暫時禁止兩周內曾到中國大陸旅行的外國人入境.受到有關消息影響,美股上周五大幅下挫,道指跌幅超過2%,而標準普爾500指數和納指跌幅都超過1%.今年以來,道指和標普500指數都由升轉跌,跌幅分別為0.99%和0.16%.不過,納指仍錄得1.99%升幅.另一方面,美國十年期國債孳息下降至1.521%,是自去年10月4日以來最低水平,同時再度跌低於3個月期國庫票據孳息,令孳息曲線再次出現倒掛,一方面反映避險情緒升溫,促使資金流入債市,另一方面則反映投資者對經濟前景感到憂慮.預期訪美中國旅客以及美國對亞洲國家的出口將會減少,可能令美國第一季經濟增長率減少0.4個百分點.
 
說回港股,恆指連跌兩周,已補回去年12月12日和13日的兩個上升裂口.預期本周一將因應A股復市而低開,恆指將下探26000(2月份夜期在上周五已率先跌破26000,最低見到25880),很大機會補回去年10月11日的上升裂口(該裂口闊166點,介於25810和25976之間).不過,恆指9天相對強弱指數已跌近20水平,呈現超賣.加上中央可能出台一些維穩和刺激措施,為A股帶來支持.所以,恆指下探26000後可能出現一波反彈,而回升阻力位估計為26400-26500.
 
相信肺炎疫情高峰期仍需一段時間才會出現,短期市況仍屬反覆尋底格局,若非大強勢股,無須急於買入,現階段宜增持現金,並將現金投放於貨幣市場基金(Money Market Fund)賺取回報.貨幣市場基金主要投資於銀行存款及短期票據,不會受股市波動影響,而且擁有高流動性,當有資金需要時可隨時贖回.現時一般港元貨幣市場基金的年化收益率約1.3%,遠比銀行儲蓄存款利率為高.


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