Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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企穩28000可上試250天線

Monday, February 4, 2019 Views4246
踏入2019年,環球股市都一洗頹風.港股連升五周,恆指在上周五最高見到25183,收報27931,相對前周上升了362點,升幅1.3%.國指亦連升五周,上周五收報11064,按周上升1.8%.整個1月份,恆指和國指分別上升了8.1%和9%.
 
A股1月份亦有不錯表現,上證綜指和滬深300按月分別上升了3.7%和6.3%.雖然經濟數據差於預期,但對A股沒有帶來太大影響.2018年全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤較2017年同期增長10.3%,增速比1至11月減慢1.5個百分點.此外,中國1月份官方製造業採購經理指數為49.5,雖比去年12月份微升0.1個百分點,但仍連續第二個月處於50榮枯分界線以下.財新中國製造業採購經理指數亦運續兩個月處於委縮區間,1月份報48.3,較去年12月下滑1.4點,創出自2016年2月以來最低水平.兩個製造業採購經理指數均顯示,中國製造業運行進一步放緩.不過,財新中國製造業PMI的分項指數新出口訂單結束了9個月的跌勢,升回50以上擴張區間,為2018年4月以來最高,反映在中美貿易談判重開的背景下,海外需求有所回升.
 
相反地,美國上周公布的就業數據卻好於預期,顯示美國經濟仍然穩健,為美股帶來支持.其中,ADP就業報告顯示,1月份私營部門增加職位21.3萬份,遠多於市場預期的18.1萬人.而美國勞工部公布的1月份非農業職位更大幅增加30.4萬份,遠超市場預期的16.5萬人.失業率小幅攀升至4%,主要由於勞動參與率連續兩個月上升,劳动参与率连续两个月上升.雖然經濟數據表現強勁可能燃點市場的加息憂慮,但聯儲局早向市場派定心丸.除了決定維持利率不變,還表示對加息保持耐心,並且不排除重啟資產購買的可能性.
 
說回港股,上周利好因素密集出現,推動恆指上試28000,可惜未能企穩其上.通常要收復一些重要阻力位或心理關口,都不會一蹴即就.估計未來恆指將在27800至28000之間整固,整固後若企穩28000,下一步可望上試250天線,該線現時處於28440水平.
 
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
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