Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

考驗26000支持

Monday, October 8, 2018 Views5275

筆者上一篇評論指出,恆指在9月12日跌至26220的年內新低後,展開一波反彈,並預計恆指可上試28000,並嘗試補回8月31日介於28121和27962之間的下跌裂口.結果恆指在9月26日最高回升至28032,補回上述下跌裂口的一部分就掉頭下跌,上周五最低見到26373,再次接近9月低位26220,收報26573,相對前周下跌了1216點,跌幅達4.4%,是連續第二周下跌.國指在上周五最低見到10450,收報10530,按周下跌4.4%,也是連續第二周下跌.

 

美股亦呈現回落壓力,道指在上周四錄得自8月以來最大單日跌幅,而納指和標準普爾500指數在上周四亦錄得自6月以來最大跌幅.全周計數,道指大致持平,而納指和標準普爾500指數卻分別下跌了3.2%和1%,主要受美國十年期國債孳息升逾3.2%所拖累.美國9月份非農業職位增加13.4萬份,少於市場預期的18萬份,主要是受到之前的颱風影響.9月份失業率下降至3.7%的49年低位,平均時薪按月和按年分別上升0.3%和2.8%;最新一周新申領失業救濟金人數回落至20.7萬人,較預期的21.3萬人為少.數據顯示美國勞動市場維持強勁,可能推動債息繼續上揚,令股市受壓.

 

外圍股市和債市波動將為A股帶來考驗,國慶節長假期間,離岸人民幣匯價持續調貶,跌穿6.91關口.中國9月份製造業採購經理指數無論是官方或財新都呈現回落態勢,分別下跌至50.8和50水平,顯示經濟下行加速,對股市不利.

 

說回港股,恆指在9月26日最高升見28032,完成一波反彈後回復跌勢,這一波跌浪料將下破9月低位26220,考驗26000的支持.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us