Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

未擺脫反覆格局

Monday, December 9, 2024 Views449

港股連升兩周,恆指在上周五最高見到19935,收報19866,相對前周上升了442點,升幅2.3%。國指和科指按周分別上升2.7%和2.5%,也是連升兩周。滬深股市上周造好,上證指數重越3400,上周五收報3404,按周上升2.3%;深成指周升幅為1.7%。市傳中共中央經濟工作會議將於本周中召開,規劃2025年經濟發展目標及刺激計劃,為股市帶來支持。《新華社》發表評論文章,指出內地政府槓桿率明顯低於主要經濟體及新興市場國家(去年底中國政府負債率為67.5^,而G20國家平均負債率為118.2%)。從赤字率看,長期以來中國大多數年份赤字率低於3%,明顯低於其他主要經濟體,所以明年仍有增加舉債和提高財政赤字的空間。經濟數據方面,11月份官方及財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)均有所上升,而且連續兩個月處於50以上擴張水平。其中,官方製造業PMI由10月的50.1上升至50.3,而財新製造業PMI則由50.3升至51.5,高於預期的50.5。不過,11月官方非製造業商務活動指數卻由10月50.4跌至49.7的收縮區,而財新中國服務業PMI亦由10月52回落至51.5。數據顯示製造業加快擴張,服務業則放緩。當前經濟下行壓力仍較大,加上外部不確定因素,政策上還要加力。

美股三大指數上周個別發展,道指上周五收報44,642,按周下跌0.6%;標普500指數和納指上周五繼續創歷史新高,按周分別上升0.96%和3.3%,均連升三周。上周公布的多個與就業有關的數據表現參差,但整體反映美國就業市場維持穩健。其中,10月JOLTS職位空缺774.4萬份,高於預期751.9萬份,前值為744.3萬份。11月ADP就業人數增加14.6萬人,略低於預期的15萬人,10月23.3萬人下修至18.4萬人。最新一周首領失業救濟金人數由前周21.5萬回升至22.4萬,較預期的21.5萬為高。11月非農職位增加22.7萬,高於預期的20萬,前值上修至3.6萬;失業率升至4.2%,高於預期的4.1%。此外,11月ISM製造業指數由10月46.5上升至48.4,高於預期的47.5。聯儲局上周公布的全國經濟形勢調查報告(褐皮書)顯示,11月美國經濟活動指標略有增加,企業對需求前景的看法也變得更為樂觀。本周將有多個與通脹有關的數據公布,包括第三季單位勞工成本、11月消費者物價指數(CPI)和生產者物價指數(PPI)。

說回港股,藉著市場對中央經濟工作會議的憧憬,恆指上周五一度逼近兩萬大關,但港股ADR預計恆指本周一低開215點,報19651,反映市況仍未擺脫反覆格局。同時,如果會議沒有令市場振奮的消息,須提防回吐壓力增加,恆指可能回試19300的支持。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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