Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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完成技術性反彈

Monday, November 25, 2024 Views781

港股上周一至周四維持窄幅波動態勢,周五沽壓明顯增大,恆指在上周五最低見到19135,收報19230,相對前周下跌了196點,跌幅1%,是連續第二周下跌.國指和科按周分別下跌1.3%和1.9%,也是連跌兩周。滬深股市也是在上周五顯現跌勢,上證指數和深證成指按周分別下跌1.9%和2.9%,主要受俄烏緊張局勢升級,以美元指數突破108創逾兩年新高影響。

人民銀行公布,11月一年期和五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)分別為3.1%和3.6%,均維持不變。預計今年內將大概率維持不變直至2025年,但今年底前有機會再降準。

中國證監會上周發布市值管理新指引,《指引》要求上市公司以提高公司品質為基礎,提升經營效率和盈利能力,並結合實際情況依法合規運用並購重組、股權激勵、員工持股計劃、現金分紅、投資者關係管理、訊息披露、股份回購等方式,推動上市公司投資價值合理反映上市公司質量。《指引》公布後,中特股概念股一度受捧,但升勢短暫。

美股上周重拾升勢,道指於本月第二度創收市新高,上周五收報44296,按周上升2%。標指和納指按周均上升1.7%。雖然有聯儲局官員支持以較慢步伐減息,但上周公布的美國經濟數據大部分好於預期,顯示經濟維持穩健,為股市帶來支持。其中,上周首領失業救濟金人數由前周21.9萬降至21.3萬,亦較預期22萬為低。11月標普製造業採購經理指數(PMI)初值由10月48.5回升至48.8,略低於預期的48.9,而服務業PMI則升至57,遠高於預期及前值的55。不過,11月密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值由73下修至71.8,低於預期的73。

本周市場將聚焦周三公布的10月個人消費支出物價(PCE)指數,預期10月PCE按年升幅將由9月的2.1%反彈至2.3%,核心PCE按年升幅亦會由9月2.7%升至2.8%。至於PCE及核心PCE按月升幅,將分別維持0.2%及0.3%。此外,本周還將公布第三季GDP的修訂數據。如GDP數據出現大幅上修或下修,有機會影響聯儲議局對經濟增長的預測,而本周三聯儲局將公布本月議息會議紀錄。周四為感恩節假期,美股將休市一天。周五為「黑色星期五」(Black Friday),美股只得半日市。

說回港股,恆指上周五創出自10月7日高位回落以來的新低,顯示完成技術性反彈再展跌勢,料將如上周預期下試19000,以及補回9月25日介於19002和19073之間的上升裂口。如19000失守,下一支持位為100天線,該線現時處於18800附近。再向下還有9月24日的上升裂口未被補回。該上升裂口闊105點,介於18427和18532之間。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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