Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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有望挑戰18725

Monday, September 23, 2024 Views925

上周評論指出,中國「三頭馬車」經濟數據遜於預期,料將令上周初港股承壓,恆指或將考驗250天線(17237)的支持。結果恆指在上周一最低見到17177,但250天線力保不失。中秋節假期後,美聯儲宣布減息半厘,本港大型銀行亦下調優惠利率四分一厘,疊加人民幣兌美元匯價升至16個月高位,帶動港股上揚,恆指突破18000,上周五最高見到18355,收報18259,相對前周上升890點,升幅5.1%。伴隨指數上升,大市成交在上周四和周五顯著增加,周五成交達1768億元,為5月31日以來最高。國指和科指按周分別上升5.1%和6.4%。滬深股市上周亦造好,上證綜指和深證成指按周均上升1.2%。美聯儲展開減息周期,但並未觸發中國人民銀行下調逆回購利率,9月貸款市場報價利率(LPR)連續兩個月維持不變,一年期利率維持3.35厘,五年期以上利率3.85厘。有分析認為內銀淨息差持續受壓,制約LPR下調空間,但人行今年內仍有很大機會減息降準刺激經濟。

美股在聯儲局減息後表現略為反覆,但道指和標準普爾500指數仍雙雙創出收市歷史新高,周升幅分別達到1.6%和1.4%,納指按周上升1.5%。上周公布的美國經濟數據大致表現理想,降低了市場對經濟放緩的憂慮。其中,9月密歇根大學消費信心指數從8月67.9回升至69,高於市場預期的68.5。8月新屋動工按月升9.6%至135.6萬間,高於預期的131.8萬間;建屋許可按月升4.9%至147.5萬間,同樣較預期的141萬間為高。上周首次首領失業救濟金人數回落至21.9萬人,低於市場預期的23萬人。
9月紐約聯儲製造業指數達11.5,在連續九個月負增長後轉向正值,並高於預期的-4。9月費城聯儲製造業指數亦由負轉正,由8月-7回升至1.7,較市期的-0.5為佳。

說回港股,恆指上周五最高見到18355,終於突破了7月12日高位18317,扭轉了自5月高位19706回落以來一個反彈高點比前一個反彈高點低的趨勢,下一步可望挑戰6月5日高位18725,回落支持17900。 


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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