Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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經濟遜於預期 250天線將受考驗

Monday, September 16, 2024 Views899

上周評論指出,恆指相繼失守100天和50線,將考驗250天線的支持。若連250天線也失守,下一支持位將為17000。結果恆指上周一度跌穿17000,最低見到16964,周五最高回升見17541,收報17369,相對前周下跌了75點,跌幅0.4%。國指和科指按周分別下跌0.6%和0.2%,也是連續第二周下跌。滬深股市上周也承壓,上證綜指險守2700,周跌幅達2.2%,而深證成指則失守8000大關,上周五收報7983,按周下跌1.8%。上周公布的數據都遜於預期,顯示中國經濟持續放緩。其中,8月居民消費價格指數(CPI)同比上漲0.6%,略高於7月份的0.5%,但低於預期的0.7%;8月出廠價格指數(PPI)同比下降1.8%,較7月份的0.8%跌幅擴大,也比預期的1.5%跌幅為大。8月工業增加值同比增長4.5%,低於7月份的5.1%,也不及預期的4.7%。該數據已連續第四個月放緩,是自2021年9月以來的最長紀錄。8月社會消費品零售總銷售年增2.1%,較7月的2.7%放緩,也低於預期的2.5%。此外,今年前八個月固定資產投資年增3.4%,低於7月的3.6%,也低於預期的3.5%。

美股上周顯著上揚,道指按周上升2.6%,標準普爾500指數和納指周升幅分別達到4%和5.95%,是自去年11月初以來的最大單周升幅。美國8月消費物價指數按月上升0.2%,維持前一個月的升幅,按年升幅放緩至2.5%,是2021年2月以來最小升幅。然而,居住成本令8月核心消費物價指數按月升幅擴大至0.3%,是四個月來最大升幅,令聯儲局本周減息半厘的機會降低,但前紐約聯儲銀行總裁杜德利上周五表示,聯儲局有充分理由一次減息50個基點,又改變了市場對聯儲局的減息幅度預期。芝商所FED  Watch工具顯示,本周有近五成機會減息半厘。

說回港股,中國「三頭馬車」經濟數據遜於預期,料將令本周初港股承壓,恆指或將考驗250天線(17237)的支持。如後續沒有更大力度的刺激經濟措施出台,恆指或將再下試17000。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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