Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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能否突破18300還看本周

Monday, July 15, 2024 Views167

上周港股呈現先低後高走勢,恆指在上周初曾跌穿17500,上周二最低見到17376,周三開始回升,周五最高見到18317,收報18293,相對前周上升了493點,升幅2.8%,是連續第二周上升。國指和科指亦連升兩周,周升幅分別爲2.4%和5.1%。滬深股市方面,上證綜指和深證成按周分別上升0.7%和1.8%。上周公布的經濟數據好壞參半,其中,6月份居民消費價格指數按年0.2%,升幅小於5月的0.3%,也不及預期的0.4%。另一方面,6月份工業生產者物價指數按年跌0.8%,符合市場預期。雖然較5月份1.4%跌幅有所收窄,卻是連續21個月錄得負數。此外,中國海關總署公佈,以美元計價,6月出按年增長8.6%,較5月7.6%增速有所加快,並好於市場預期。不過,進口卻下跌2.3%,市場原本預期增長7.6%,而5月增長1.8%。通脹及外貿數據均顯示,內部需求仍然疲弱。

美股三大指數上周接連創歷史新高,道指上周五收於40000點,按周上升1.6%;標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別上升0.9%和0.2%。聯儲局主席鮑威爾在國會作證時發表偏鴿言論,加上消費通脹數據低於預期,提升九月減息機會,為股市帶來支持。

說回港股,上周預期恆指會在17500-18300之間窄幅波動。雖然上周一和周二恆指曾均下破17500,但兩日的收市指數均企17500以上。現時恆指升近區間頂部,或有望藉著市場對三中全會的政策憧憬,嘗試突破18300,挑戰18500/18700,但若缺乏實質利好因素,可能又是衝高回落的虛火上升。

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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