Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗250天線

Monday, June 17, 2024 Views937

恆指上周再度失守18000點,周五收報17942,相對前周下跌了425點,跌幅2.3%。國指和科指按周分別下跌2.1%和1.7%。滬深股市上周亦表現偏軟,上證綜指跌近3000點,周五收報3032,按周下跌0.6%、;深證成指周五收報9252,按周微跌3點。內地上月通脹略低於市場預期,五月份全國居民消費價格指數(CPI)按年升百分之0.3,與四月份增幅相同,是連續四個月錄得按年升幅,但略低於市場預期的百分之0.4。至於反映上游通脹的工業生產者出廠價格指數,按年跌幅收窄至百分之1.4,跌幅是十五個月以來最少。國家統計局表示,消費市場運行總體平穩,而受部分國際大宗商品價格上行,以及國內工業品市場供需關係改善等因素影響,全國工業生產者出廠價格指數按年跌幅收窄,按月則由跌轉升,但數據對股市未有帶來太大影響,市場將關注本周一公布的三頭馬車經濟數據。


美股方面,標準普爾500指數和納指上周屢創新高,按周分別上升1.6%和3.2%。然而,道指未能跟上,按周錄得0.5%跌幅。美國聯儲局議息一如預期維持利率不變,主席鮑威爾指控制通脹得到進展,但未有足夠信心開始減息。反映美國聯儲局官員對未來利率走勢預測的點陣圖亦顯示,預計今年年底的聯邦基金利率為5.1厘,高於三月預計的4.6厘,意味聯儲局官員預計今年只會減息1次,減幅0.25厘,較3月預測減少兩次。不過,聯邦基金利率期貨卻顯示,市場估計今年聯儲局會減息兩次。


上周公布的美國經濟數據都差於預期,其中,五月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 年增 3.3%,低於市場預期與前值 3.4%;按月無起跌,低於預期的 0.1% 與前值的 0.3%。五月生產物價指數(PPI)按年升幅維持2.2%,低於預期的2.5%,按月跌0.2%,低於預期的升0.1%,前值為升0.5%。截至6月8日止當周,首次申請失業救濟人數24.2萬人,按周增加1.3萬人,多於市場預期的22.5萬人以及前值修訂後的22.9萬人。另一方面,美國消費信心呈現走弱,六月密西根大學消費者信心指數從 5 月的 69.1 降至 65.6,遠低於市場預期的 72。市場將關注本周公布的個人消費開支(PCE)價格指數。

說回港股,恆指失守18000點,50天線亦岌岌可危。若50天線確認失守,下一步將考驗250天線的支持,該線現時處於17600附近。若連17440也跌穿,則需重新審視從19706開始的跌浪是調整還是轉勢。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

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