Market Brief

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Author

邱俊瑜先生 (Porter Yau)
經理

主要按基本因素選股,但有時也會參考圖表、技術分析。除股票外,亦經常研究期權 。歡迎來電賜教或交流心得。
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中國心連心化肥有限公司 (1866)

Thursday, June 16, 2022 Views5694

中國心連心化肥有限公司 1866.hk

主要從事生產及銷售尿素、複合肥、甲醇、三聚氰胺、糠醇、二甲醚、液態氨及氨溶液。

第一季度 業績盈利預喜

2022 年一季度淨利潤同比增長不低於70%,原因如下:

  1. 規模提升: 21 年3 月九江基地投產、21 年四季度新鄉二三廠改造項目完成,優質產能進一步釋放,技術及規模優勢更加突顯,從而增強了盈利能力;
  2. 優化產品結構:集團借助園區優勢,加強產品柔性調節,優化產品結構,提高高效肥佔比,不斷加大研發推廣力度,進一步增強低成本及產品差異 化優勢,提高市場競爭力,提升利潤空間;
  3. 剛性需求的增長:原材料及糧食價格上漲,推升了農業對化肥剛性需求的增長,從而推動化肥及化工品銷量及價格提升,使本集團主要 產品尿素、三聚氰胺及甲醇受益明顯。

 

先舊後新配售

4 月19 日心連心配售7850 萬股(當中5650 萬股為新股,2200 萬股為舊股),佔公司擴大後股本約6.4%(新股部分佔4.6%),每股配售價格6.5 港元。總共融資約3.6 億港元,融資所得約1.4 億港元用於償還銀行貸款,優化債務結構。另外約2.2 億港元用於甘肅省金昌、江西省九江的項目建設。

 

短評:

俄烏戰爭和糧食危機下,化肥股在2022年初表現出眾。1866.hk股價在發出盈喜下衝上$8.62後公佈配股消息,配股價$6.5;幸好舊股東只係減持22M股,相對配售的78.5M,比例少於3成;現時大股東持股比例約54.5%,相信不會影響未來的發展。

 

由於公司已經發出第一季度的盈喜,只要尿素和複合肥料價格保持平穩,公司擴張式產能將會得益;預計今年每股盈利將有20%增長,每股盈利約$1.6。現時股價$6.09,預期PE只有3.8倍,預期股息5.3%;建議在6元附近收集。但短期需要留意尿素價格的走勢。

 

目標價:$8.8

止損價:$5.4

 

 

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