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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
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現任職輝立經理,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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美國加息利好本港銀行業收入, 中銀香港 (2388HK) 料可受惠

Friday, January 21, 2022 Views8968

# 本港銀行股如中銀香港在2021財年及2022年初至今的表現均分別跑羸恆生指數13%及7%。

 

# 展望餘下的2022年, 美國聯儲局料加息及中概股回歸上市, 相信將有助提升本港銀行業的收入。

 

# 另外, 市場憧憬香港與中國重新開放邊境仍然是焦點的基礎上升動力。這亦有望於2022年實現。

 

# 同時亦有風險、負面因素需要留意。以行業的宏觀發展角度去分析,在經濟放緩的情況下,銀行相關資產質量的不確定性正在上升,而偏向寬鬆的貨幣政策將減少對跨境貸款的溢出需求,市場普遍相信2021財年度的本港銀行股業績不會有太大驚喜。

 

# 但預期本港銀行的平均盈利增長將從2022財年度的15% 提升至2023財年度的20%,有望成為股價上升的催化劑。

 

# 美國聯儲局加息預期將是本港銀行最重要的推動力,與上一個周期相似,由於流動性充裕和信貸需求正在穩中上升,相信HIBOR回升加上往來及儲蓄存款 (CASA) 比率創歷史新高,這一回香港銀行的淨息差敏感度會更高。

 

# 在預測2021財年的平均營運利潤增長大約為20% 的前提下,相信中銀香港最少可以維持去年度的每股派息水平。

 

# 從基本因素角度分析, 目前中銀香港的市帳率 (PB RATIO) 大約為1.071x, 股息率大約為 4.217%。估值算是吸引。

 

# 配合技術分析作買入位及目標價。中銀香港的日線圖、周線圖均呈上升態勢。

(*) = 日線圖的十天移動平均線 = HK$28.75;

(*) = 周線圖則已完成「圓底」形態,頸線為2021年5月10日的高位 = HK$28.3,「圓底」的低位為2021年9月20日的低位 = HK$22.2;目前, 中銀香港的股價已突破頸線,若以「量度升幅」計算, 目標價為HK$34.4。

(*) = 綜合上述各主要技術分析支持及目標價位作參考,我們的買入策略訂為:買入價為HK$28.75,目標價為HK$34.4,潛在升幅約為19.7%。止蝕價位訂為周線圖的二百五十天移動平均線 = HK$26.92。

 

本人馮兆山為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益.

 

I, Michael Fung, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.

 

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