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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
經理

現任職輝立經理,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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長城汽車 (2333.HK) 買入評級, 待調整吸納

Wednesday, July 28, 2021 Views12172

# 長城汽車 (2333.HK) 首季業績轉虧為盈, 淨利潤為16.39億元人民幣, 去年同期則錄得6.5億元人民幣虧損. 但受到芯片短缺及原材料價格及成本上升的影響, 導致毛利率按季下降2.9%.

 

2333.HK受到相關芯片短缺的影響早於預期, 我們需要審慎關注及評估此一因素對公司業務的影響, 預計芯片短缺的影響將持續至今年第三季度, 料今年長城汽車銷售量將下降大約4%, 估計行業中大約100至200萬輛汽車將會受到影響, 意味著長汽無法提高價格或削減折扣以抵銷芯片短缺的問題. 雖然, 短線受上述『芯片短缺』的負面因素影響, 但長遠來看, 在 SVOLT 電池技術和智能汽車技術平台『咖啡智能』 的支持下, 相信長汽能夠自我轉型並在業界保持競爭力, 另外在越野車和低端電動車等領域的成功將帶動業務增長.

 

# 長城汽車在電動汽車平台和智能駕駛技術方面獲得的投資幫助, 令電動汽車銷售方面取得了初步成功, 並在低端市場中獲得了堅穩的立足據點.

 

值得關注的是, 在電動車領域, 長城汽車今年首季銷量達3.07萬輛, 佔其總銷量約一成. 集團的電動汽車品牌以 ORA 品牌定位於中低端市場, 零售價格從7萬元至14萬元人民幣不等. 這是仍然由少數几家主要的中國本地汽車製造商主導的細分市場.

 

# 以下因素將左右長城汽車股價的表現:

  1. = 長城汽車目標平均售價上升主要是由於新產品、品牌資產加強及產品組合的改善. ORA品牌旗下的新能源汽車的平均售價高於集團平均值, 集團管理層預料至2025年新能源汽車將佔整體銷售的八成, 其能否逹標將左右盈利能力.

  2. = 長城汽車將面臨挑戰, 當更多傳統的代工生產推出類似的大眾市場產品時, 集團能否捍衛這一戰略性市場, 以及可否將其規模擴大至更具競爭力的中高端市場呢?

 

# 看圖睇勢, 2333.HK的周線圖剛於上周創下52周新高 = HK$35.5之後, 本周回試周線圖的頸線 = HK$31.3. 投資者可以考慮作出分段操作, 第一注買入位設定為頸線的 HK$31.3, 第二注則待股價再破頂 = HK$35.5時追入. 止蝕位設定為 HK$28.9. 第一個目標價為HK$40.7; 第二個目標價為周線圖的圓底量度升幅 = HK$53.8.

 # 其實, 投資者除可以考慮本地汽車板塊外, 亦可考慮於全球世界各地上市的各大汽車企業.

本人馮兆山為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益。

 

I, Michael Fung, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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