Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指重心繼續下移

Monday, September 26, 2022 Views2241

上周指出恆指將延續緩步下行的"慢跌"態勢,如18500失守,將下試3月低位18235.結果恆指跌穿了這個低位,再創年內新低17926,同時也是自2011年10月以來的11年新低,周五收報17933,相對前周下跌829點,跌幅4.4%.國指亦跌穿今年3月低位6052,再創年內新低6114,按周下跌4.8%.科指上周五最低見到3590,暫時仍未跌穿今年3月低位3463,但周跌幅接近7%.

A股上周亦表現偏軟,上證綜指,滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌1.2%,1.9%和2.3%.在美元強勢影響下,人民幣持續面對貶值壓力,在岸價和離岸價相"破7",中間價亦逼近7算,為股市帶來沽壓,國慶節前股市可廳繼續走弱.

美股方面,聯儲局一如預期加息四分三厘,但年底前仍可能再加息1.25厘,即11月加四分三厘,12月加半厘.加上鮑威爾在新聞發布會上言論偏鷹,令美股跌勢加劇.鮑威爾表示,他不知道高利率是否會導致經濟衰退,以及衰退會到甚麼程度,但他承認經濟軟著陸機會可能降低,並謂為了降低通脹風險,經濟必須付出代價.另一方面,聯儲局宣布下調今年經濟增長預測至僅0.2%,遠低於之前預測的1.7%,2023年及2024年經濟增長預測亦分別調低至1.2%及1.7%,2025年及長期增長預測中值均為1.8%.美股上周連跌四天,道指,標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌4%,4.8%和5%.現時道指相對今年1月4日見到的歷史最高收市指數36799已下跌接近兩成,逼近熊領域.

說回港股,恆指重心料將繼續下移,下一支持位看17500,回升阻力18500.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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