Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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21150-22400區間波動

Monday, April 4, 2022 Views4047

上周評論指出,恆指由3月15日低位18235回升至3月23日高位22424,累計上升了4189點,差不多反彈了由2月10月高位25051下跌至18235跌幅的0.618比率.完成這一浪強力反彈後,將進入整固階段.恆指在上周一最低見到21203,周三最高回升見22391,周五收報22040,相對前周上升了635點,升幅約3%.國指上周五收報7537,按周上升3.5%.科指上周五收報4524,按周上升3.3%.


A股方面,雖然內地疫情持續升溫,但對股市未有帶來太大影響,上證綜指和滬深300上周分別上升2.2%和2.4%,而深證成指則升1.3%.經濟數據方面,3月份官方和財新中國製造業採購經理指數分別下降至49.5和,48.4,分別較2月份下降0.7和3.2個百分點,雙雙跌入收縮區間,反映3月疫情在全國多地蔓延,防疫措施進一步收緊,對製造業生產經營造成明顯衝擊.不過,在經濟走弱的情況下,市場憧憬中央將推出更多寬鬆政策,反而為股市帶來支持.


美股上周表現分化,道指按周下跌0.1%,結束了連續兩周的升勢,而納指和標準普爾500指數則連升三周,周升幅分別為0.7%和0.1%.美國3月份非農業職位增加43.1萬份,少於預期的49萬份,失業率卻由3.8%下降至3.6%,較預期的3.7%為佳.現時市場更感關注的是孳息曲線倒掛預示經濟可能陷入衰退的風險,因美國一星期內三次出現短債收益高於長債的孳息曲線倒掛,2年期國債孳息率除高於10年期國債孳息率外,也高於30年期國債孳息率,是自2007年首次出現倒掛.


說回港股,恆指上周跌近20天線見到支持,但升近22400見到阻力.恆指20天線現時位於21150附近,預料本周大市將維持於21150-22400區間內波動.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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