Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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本周料於23150-23750之間上落

Monday, January 3, 2022 Views6362

港股2021年領跌其他主要市場,恆指全年埋單計數下跌了3833點,跌幅14.1%.國指按年下跌23.3%,而科指年跌幅更達到32.6%.不過,在2021年最後一個交易日,港股總算紅盤收官,恆指上周五收報23398,相對上周四上升286點,按周則上升0.7%,是連續第二周上升.國指上周五收報8236,按周上升0.4%.科指上周五收報5671,按周上升0.9%,.

A股亦紅盤收官,上證綜指和深證成指全年分別上升4.8%和2.7%,而創業板指數則上漲達12%.上周五公布的12月份官方採購經理指數(PMI)顯示,經濟景氣水平穩中回升,為A股帶來支持.其中,製造業採購經理指數為50.3,比11月份上升0.2個百分點,繼續企於50臨界點以上.非製造業商務活動指數為52.7%,比11月份上升0.4個百分點,顯示非製造業恢復步伐加快.去年人民幣兌美元匯率升值約2.5%,是連續第二年上升,成為表現最好的主要新興市場貨幣.


美股方面,2021年可以說是豐收年.其中,標準普爾500指數繼2020年錄得16%升幅後,去年上漲29%.納指和道指則分別上漲22%和21%.上周公布的美國經濟數據大部分表現理想,其中,截至2021年12月25日一周的新申領失業救濟金人數為19.8萬,低於市場預期的20.5萬,接近52年前的最低紀錄.美國本周將公布一系列重磅經濟數據,包括就業報告和ISM採購經理指數.據市場預測,美國12月份非農層位將增加42.5萬份,高於11月份的21萬份,失業率可望從4.2%降至4%.


說回港股,上周五的升市主要靠高開得來,三大指數收市其實都比開市低,陰陽圖都形成陰燭.恆指上周五一度升穿20天線,但未能企穩其上.恆指9天相對強弱指數(RSI)上周五再次升近50中軸,如能突破50並企穩其上,恆指應有望上越20天線,上阻力看23750,而回落支持為23150.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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