Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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突破收窄三角形

Monday, July 6, 2020 Views2113

上周評論指出,恆指前周上企100天線失敗,料將掉頭下試50天線支持,若然失守,將下探23700.結果恆指在上周一最低見到25149,剛好守住50天線.而在七.一假期後展現升勢,於上周五最高升見25454,為自3月11日以來新高,收報25373,相對前周上升了823點,升幅3.3%.國指亦重越10000大關,上周五最高見到10273,收報10243,周升幅接近4%.

A股亦展現強勢,上證綜指在上周四成功突破3000關口,上周五收報3152,按周則上升5.8%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別上升6.8%和5.2%.除了指數呈現突破,成交亦放量增長,滬深兩市成交超越1萬億,上周五達到11714億元.此外,兩融餘額亦持續上升.截至7月1日,滬深兩市的兩融餘額已接近1.18萬億元,較6月初上升近1000億元,比去年底增加近2000億元.據了解,目前部分券商的兩融融資利率已降至6%左右(去年下半年還保持在7%至8%),將有助兩融餘額繼續擴容.另一個利好因素是,人民銀行於7月1日下調再貸款再貼現利率,是十年來首次下調再貼現利率,也是年內第二次下調再貸款利率.經濟數據方面,財新6月份中國製造業採購經理指數錄得51.2,較5月份提高0.5個百分點,為今年以來最高;服務業採購經理指數提高3.4個百分點至58.4,為逾十年以來最高,顯示經濟加速修復.
 
美股納指續創新高,上周四收報10207,按周上升4.6;道指和標準普爾500指數按周分別上升3.2%和4%.經濟數據方面,美國6月份非農業職位增加480萬份,多於市場預期,失業率環比下降2.2個百分點至11.1%.美國因疫情失去了2200萬份職位,目前大約恢復了三分一.不過,隨著新冠肺炎確診病例在美國部分地區激增,可能對就業市場復甦構成障礙.
 
說回港股,恆指除了重越100天線,亦突破了收窄三角形下降軌,以及6月10日高位25304,形成一浪高於一浪的走勢, 下一步料可嘗試補回3月9日的下跌裂口及挑戰250天線.該下跌裂口闊763點,介於26084和25321之間,而250線則處於26110附近.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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