Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

繼續考驗50天線支持

Monday, December 10, 2018 Views3592
受中美達成共識暫停徵收額外關稅的利好消息驅動,恆指在上周一裂口上揚,重越27000關口,周二最高見到27260,之後卻因為華為首席財務官孟晚舟被捕消息,加上美國國債孳息收益率出現倒掛等利淡因素影響而顯著下滑,恆指在上周四最低見到20016,周五收報26064,相對前周下跌了442點,跌幅1.7%.國指亦呈現先高後低的走勢,在上周一最高見到10952,周五最低跌至10369,收報10369,按周下跌2.4%.
 
因哀悼前總統老布殊逝世,美股上周三休市一天,但全周市況亦呈現大幅波動.道指在上周初曾回升近26000關口,最高見到25980,但之後卻連跌三天,上周五收報24388,按周下跌4.6%,而納指和標普500指數按周分別下跌4.9%和4.6%,三大指數都創出自今年3月以來最大單周跌幅.而且,經過上周下跌,道指和標普500指數今年以來又由升轉跌,而納指僅錄得1%按年升幅.除了憂慮中美貿易談判缺乏實質進展外,美國3年期和5年期國債孳息曲線出現11年來首次倒掛(3年期美債孳息一度較5年期美債孳息高出1.4個基點),而2年期和10年美債孳息之差亦大幅收窄,令市場憂慮經濟亮起衰退紅燈.經濟數據方面,美國11月份非農職位增加15.5萬份,較預期的19萬份為少,但失業率維持於3.7%低水平,而平均時薪按年上升3.1%,是自2009年以來最大升幅,意味美國仍面對工資通脹上升壓力.此外,油組與其產油國盟友同意減產,令油價回升,亦不利通脹.
 
相對港股和美股,A股上周表現尚算平穩.上證綜指上周五收報2605,相對前周上升0.7%;滬深300按周微升4點,而深證成指按周則上升0.7%.11月份財新中國製造業與服務業採購經理指數俱優於官方指數及市場預期,為A股帶來一支持.其中,製造業PMI較10月份微升0.1個百分點至50.2,而服務業PMI更升至53.8的五個月新高.
 
說回港股,恆指上周曾上破27000和100天線,但未能企穩其上,一下子又跌穿10天和20天線,暫獲50天線支持.本周料會繼續考驗50天線(26050)的支持,如50天線確認失守,下一支持位將為25500.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us